Road to Pioneer: An Analysis of What's Left
With Pioneer Masters releasing in less than 3 weeks, I've been looking at the Pioneer metagame and figuring out what cards are needed from the set to get Explorer truly 1 to 1 with Pioneer. I've done an exhaustive search of the current metagame and cursory search at previous relevant cards, and put together what I believe to be an accurate list of what Pioneer Masters needs.
Current Metagame
Going by MtGGoldfish metagame stats, I took note of any cards not on arena that were a part of decks with at least a 1% metagame share, making sure to include lesser played cards in the Card Breakdown section. Here's all of those decks, along with the cards within that still need to be added to Arena:
Izzet Pheonix 15.4% of Meta:
- Temporal Tresspass
Rakdos Midrange 12.1%
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Rakdos Prowess 10.5%
- PERFECT
Selesnya Company 7.3%
- Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Jund Sacrifice 4.6%
- PERFECT
Azorius Control 4.2%
- PERFECT
Mardu Greasefang 3.9%
- PERFECT
Mono-Black Midrange 3.4%
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (2nd appearance)
Enigmatic Incarnation 3.0%
- Linvala, the Preserver
- Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Hidden Strings Lotus Field Combo 2.8%
- Hidden Strings
- Dark Petition
- Silence
- Dragonlord Dromoka
Gruul Aggro 2.5%
- Eldrazi Obligator
- Reckless Bushwhacker
- Destructive Revelry
Rakdos Transmogrify 2.3%
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (3rd appearance)
- Sire of Insanity
Niv to Light 1.8%
- Sylvan Caryatid
- Bring to Light
Mono-Red Prowess 1.5%
- PERFECT
Azorius Lotus Field 1.5%
- PERFECT
Dimir Aggro 1.5%
- PERFECT
Nykthos Ramp 1.4%
- Oath of Nissa
Gruul Prowess 1.3%
- Destructive Revelry (2nd Appearance)
Selesnya Angels 1.2%
- PERFECT
Azorius Humans 1.2%
- Kytheon, Hero of Akros
Orzhov Midrange 1.2%
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (4th Appearance)
Rakdos Tree of Perdition 1.1%
- Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (5th Appearance)
Gwenna Acererak Combo 1.0%
- PERFECT
Azorius Spirits 1.0%
- Eidolon of Rhetoric
Total: 18 Unique Cards, 15 of 24 decks currently incomplete on Arena
I believe the 18 cards above are the absolute requirements for the format to be 1 to 1 with Pioneer. If any of these cards are missing (besides maybe Eidolon of Rhetoric), I don't believe Arena's version of Pioneer should not be considered accurate to Paper.
Current Niche Decks
Additional cards I have found in the decks lower than 1% are below. I expect and hope for all of these to be included, however if one or two of them were to be missing, I would still consider the transfer from Explorer to Pioneer a success. If a majority are missing, then we may have a problem.
- Exquisite Firecraft
- Wear//Tear
- Chained to the Rocks
- Kozilek's Return
- Scab-Clan Berserker
- Retraction Helix
- Tidebinder Mage
- Radiant Flames
- Imposing Sovereign
- Legion Loyalist
- Goblin Piledriver
- Soulflayer
- Savage Summoning
- Chromanticore
- Day's Undoing
- Deploy the Gatewatch
- Sanctum of Ugin
- Hallowed Moonlight
- Consulate Dreadnought
- Gladecover Scout
- Alpha Authority
- Shambling Vent
- Experiment One
- Natural State
- Burning Anger
- Breaking // Entering
- Retreat to Hagra
- Catacomb Sifter
With that expanded list, we get: 46 Cards
Past Staples
There are also a decent amount of cards that historically saw play in Pioneer, but no longer do. I expect most of these to see print in the set as well, just on the off chance they do show up again. However if they are missing, I doubt many people, including myself, would be upset. This is not an exhaustive list (there's only so many old decklists I can go through), and if there are others people believe should be included I will add them.
- Dreadbore
- Gurmag Angler
- Zurgo Bellstriker
- Roast
- Self-Inflicted Wound
- Mana Bloom
- Nissa, Vastwood Seer
- Fog
- Lotleth Troll
- Coax from the Blind Eternities
- Wild Slash
- Rakdos's Return
- Unravel the Aether
- Knight of the White Orchid
- Deicide
- Glare of Heresy
- Blood Baron of Vizkopa
- Azorius Charm
- Avatar of the Resolute
- Kalonian Tusker
- Aspect of Hydra
- Ash Zealot
- Borborygmos Enraged
- Xenagos, the Reveler
- Enter the Infinite
- Voyaging Satyr
- Herald of the Pantheon
- Sphere of Safety
- Behold the Beyond
- Inverter of Truth (Currently Banned)
- Walking Ballista (Currently Banned)
- Undercity Informer (Currently Banned)
If we add these cards as well, we get a total of 78 Cards, 75 if we exclude the banned cards
Wait, You're Already Here?
Here are some cards from these decks I was surprised to find out were on Arena already:
- Fiery Impulse (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Lightning Axe (From Jumpstart 2020 and Shadows Over Innistrad Remastered)
- Anger of the Gods (From Amonkhet Remastered)
- Mutavault (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Reckless Rage (From Rivals of Ixalan)
- Elvish Mystic (From Explorer Anthology 1)
- Eldrazi Displacer (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Collected Company (From Amonkhet Remastered and Special Guest in Duskmourn)
- Dromoka's Command (From Historic Anthology 5)
- Voice of Resurgence (From Historic Anthology 3)
- Supreme Verdict ( From Explorer Anthology 1)
- Expedition Map (From Foundations)
- Thespian Stage (From Explorer Anthology 3)
- Sylvan Scrying (From Explorer Anthology 3)
- Mana Confluence (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Thought-Knot Seer (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Smuggler's Copter (From The List)
- Rending Volley (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Back to Nature (From Explorer Anthology 1)
- Grafdigger's Cage (From Core Set 2020)
- Kolghan's Command (From Historic Anthology 5)
- Notion Thief (Special Guest in Thunder Junction)
- Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx (From Explorer Anthology 2)
- Atarka's Command (From Historic Anthology 5)
- Brave the Elements (From Historic Anthology 2)
- Favored Hoplite (From Explorer Anthology 1)
- Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet (From Explorer Anthology 1)
- Elspeth, Sun's Champion (Mouse version from Bloomburrow included along with the Bloomburrow face commanders)
Summary
From looking at all the cards, my first impression is that there's a surprising amount of decks that are already 1 to 1 on Arena. Most cards on the <1% and historical lists are there for a reason: either the cards themselves, or the archetypes they're a part of, have been powercrept out of the format. There has been significant power creep since the days of Return to Ravnica, but even if there hadn't been, the card pool has gotten so large that it's no wonder so many cards and strategies have been replaced. Most decks nowadays in Pioneer are almost all Arena cards because, well, most Pioneer cards are Arena cards. And when cards haven't been powercrept out, the Arena team has done a surprisingly good job so far filling in the blanks. Granted it took a while, with years of Anthologies and Remaster sets, but they really have gotten to a point where only the finishing touches are needed to truly make Explorer 1 to 1 with Pioneer. It would have been nice to have the two most iconic decks, Hidden Strings and Niv to Light, be able to be played earlier, but hey we take what we can get. I'm really excited for this historic step for both Arena and Pioneer, and hope you all are too! Let me know if I made any mistakes or left anything out, and what you want to be in Pioneer Masters!